Posted: May 20, 2013 8:29 AM by Meteorologist Mike Heard
Updated: May 20, 2013 8:30 AM
Finally the rainy season is here! Looking at the 6 to 10 forecast and 8 to 14 day forecast, models show above normal precipitation for Montana into the first week of June.
Rainfall has been impressive with a slow moving upper level Low passing through Montana over the last 4 to 5 days and many areas of SW Montana have seen a half inch up to two inches of much needed rainfall. Here are some of the 4 day totals Thursday-Sunday: Butte .47", Yellowstone International Airport at Belgrade 1.56", Bozeman MSU 2.25", Dillon Airport .93", Dillon WMCE 1.14", Big Sky .92", Ennis 1.68", Townsend .53", Wisdom .36".
Another slow moving upper level Low will stall over the pacific NW this week, in fact it will be over Washington State for a prolonged period of time the storm will likely have to pay a sales tax.
A blocking high pressure ridge system extending up into central Canada and down into the high plains will trap this storm system over the pacific NW. The upper level flow will be out of the SW for Montana and at times we will see periods of rain or thunderstorms develop especially into west central and northwest Montana.
The stalled upper level Low will eventually track up into Canada later in the week and once this blocking pattern breaks down a persistent jet stream moving over Montana will pave the way for several storms to pass through producing a good opportunity for more rain and thunderstorms next week and into the first week of June.
Smaller streams and creeks will take the brunt of the runoff from this wet weather and will be flowing high, however, our larger rivers are well below flood stage and no major flooding is anticipated at this time unless we see a heavy rain event.
One side effect from this wet weather is burned areas from last summer fires are susceptible to mudslides, debris slides and flash flooding.
Chief Meteorologist Mike Heard will have a look at this weeks weather pattern tonight at 5:30pm and 10pm on KXLF and KBZK.